Michael Bishop
Forecasting · AI Governance · Ottawa
I'm interested in systems that help people and institutions navigate uncertainty better: through AI, through forecasting, and through the governance structures that determine whether those systems are trustworthy. In the federal public service, my work has centred on AI applications and governance.
Earlier I contributed to the Good Judgment Project (which won the IARPA forecasting tournament) and led Replication Markets for DARPA SCORE, a large-scale effort to evaluate and improve the reliability of social and behavioural science research.
Research
- Large-scale human predictions of the replicability of published social and behavioural science papers: a multi-study analysis
- Assessments of Credibility in the Social and Behavioral Sciences
- Forecasting the publication and citation outcomes of COVID-19 preprints
- Are replication rates the same across academic fields? Community forecasts from the DARPA SCORE programme
- What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick? Explaining Variation in Group Performance at Geopolitical Forecasting
- Assessing Objective Recommendation Quality through Political Forecasting
- Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions
- The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics
Awards
- 2021 Top Prize, Clinical Trials Forecasting (Human Forests)
- 2014 1st Place, American Civics Exchange
- 2013 2nd of 3,000+, GJP Probabilistic Forecasting Tournament
- 2012 1st of 300+, Good Judgment Project Prediction Market